New York Election Update, November 2020

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Hi All,

While the election is over for much of the country, and Joe Biden will be our next President, Democrats in New York had a tough night that no one anticipated. The 40-member Senate Democratic caucus had expected to gain two seats for a veto-proof majority for the first time ever. Instead, they will likely see a net loss of two to three seats.Below is an analysis of how these election results are expected to affect legislative action in Albany as well as a summary of the closest races. Local boards of elections only recently started counting mail-in ballots and final results are expected in the coming days and weeks.In all, there are roughly 10 state senate races where Republicans lead Democratic incumbents across the state that are still too close to call. It could be days before we get more concrete projections, but the impact is already discernible and the dynamic in Albany next year will change significantly from the past two years. As mentioned above, Senate Democrats are likely to endure a net loss of two to three seats for a 38/37 to 26/25 majority in January. This smaller majority is expected to result in the overall tone of the Senate Democratic conference being more moderate on controversial bills.

The Election's Impact

Tech and Other High-Profile Issues: Legislation less likely to move quickly or potentially not even pass at all in the next two years because of these election results include: antitrust law changes, gig worker classification, facial recognition technology bans for law enforcement, and cannabis legalization. Privacy, AI discrimination, and facial recognition bans in schools or elsewhere will still likely be pursued. Increased taxes on multi-millionaires and corporations are still likely, in addition to borrowing and spending cuts. Taxes on data and digital advertising are still being considered by the legislature and the Governor and this election will unlikely affect their chances - which are slim but still warranting attention and opposition. This being New York, strategic engagement on all bills mentioned is still very much necessary. Nothing here goes away on its own.Progressives: Note that in the State Assembly, nine incumbent Democrats representing NYC suburbs, outer boroughs, and upstate districts are unexpectedly running behind Republican challengers at the moment. More than half are considered too far behind to make up the difference with absentee ballots. From NYC however, there will be six new progressive Assembly members who defeated already liberal incumbents. Expect them and most of the progressive New York City State Senators to get the most press attention and the least victories over the next two years. If they do manage to legalize cannabis and make New York a more expensive place to do business, additional suburban Senate Democrats will be at serious risk of losing their seats in the next election cycle in 2022, putting the Senate Democratic majority in jeopardy.Governor Cuomo: After this election, the Governor will be less concerned with his primary in 2022 and more concerned with his general election for a fourth term. He may not moderate his agenda and he will say he supports legalizing cannabis and other progressive priorities. But behind the scenes, expect him to partner with suburban legislators to keep them from passing.

State of the Campaigns

State Legislative Races:In South Brooklyn, the Republican challenger is ahead of incumbent Senator Andrew Gounardes by 6,000 votes. Gounardes has a chance to pull ahead after all mail-in ballots are counted but it will be close. Senator Gounardes wrote an op-ed in June about a data tax idea which is unlikely to happen but which we continue to engage on with the Senator and others.On Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, five Senate Democrats are currently in tight races. Four of them are expected to lose their seats because the volume of mail-in ballots still to be counted are not enough to change the results. One Long Island Democrat currently trailing his Republican opponent is Senator Kevin Thomas. To win he needs the votes of all Democratic mail-in ballots and 60% of Independents. He is the sponsor of controversial privacy legislation and Chair of the Senate Consumer Protection Committee which considers bills that affect the tech industry.In Buffalo and Rochester, however, Senate Democrats flipped three Republican-held seats.Aside from the three open seats being flipped in Western NY, Democrats are currently trailing Republicans in the seven other races for open Senate seats. These Democratic candidates are unlikely to flip any of these seats long held by retiring Republicans.In the State Assembly, there is one additional seat on Long Island that is surprisingly competitive, aside from the nine incumbent Democrats mentioned above who are currently running behind their Republican challengers. In an open Long Island Assembly seat with a large Democratic registration advantage, the Republican challenger is running too far ahead for the Democrat to likely come backNew York’s Congressional Delegation:NY-3: On Long Island, incumbent Tom Suozzi (D) is down by 4,000 votes to a Republican challenger. He is expected to win though, after all mail-in ballots are counted.NY-11: In Staten Island, Nicole Malliotakis (R) is eight points, or 37,000 votes, ahead of incumbent Max Rose (D). While he has not yet conceded, there are not enough mail-in ballots from Democrats for him to overtake the lead.NY-15 and NY-17: Ritchie Torrres and Mondaire Jones both won their races in the Bronx and Hudson Valley, respectively, becoming the first openly gay Black members of Congress. (BuzzFeed News)NY-22: In Utica, incumbent Anthony Brindisi (D) is down by more than 28,000 votes. While he has not yet conceded, there are not enough mail-in ballots from Democrats for him to overtake the lead.